Edition #32: The Best and Worst of Retail in 2025: Tariffs, AI & Speed

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As 2025 winds down, retail is closing the year with unresolved tensions: pricing scrutiny, regulatory pushback, expansion bets, and consumer demand that refuses to move in straight lines. This week’s edition tracks where confidence is holding — and where the cracks are starting to show.

🌍 World Retail Headlines

Single ticket wins $1.8B Powerball jackpot
A record-breaking win underscores how lottery spending continues to thrive even in cautious consumer climates.
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Deal to sell 120 J.C. Penney stores for $950M falls through
Private equity-backed plans to offload a large chunk of J.C. Penney’s real estate collapse, underscoring how fragile mall-linked assets remain despite stabilising footfall.
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Italy takes aim at ultra-fast fashion with new levy
Italy proposes duties targeting ultra-fast fashion imports, signalling a tougher European stance on low-cost, high-volume apparel models.
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Lululemon to enter six new markets in 2026 in largest single-year expansion
The athleisure giant accelerates global growth, signalling confidence in international demand despite uneven consumer sentiment.
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Weight-loss pill approval set to accelerate food industry product overhauls
New obesity drug approvals are forcing food companies to rethink formulations, portion sizes, and positioning faster than anticipated.
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U.S. delays new tariffs on Chinese chips until 2027
Washington pushes back planned semiconductor tariffs, offering temporary relief to global tech supply chains.
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Apple’s Tim Cook doubles Nike stake, endorses turnaround push
Cook increases his personal investment in Nike, backing CEO Elliott Hill amid mounting pressure in China and North America.
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Nestlé exits Herta JV, sells remaining 40% stake
Nestlé completes its exit from the European meat brand, sharpening focus on core food and nutrition priorities.
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Visa and Mastercard report 4% growth in U.S. holiday retail sales
Holiday spending grows modestly, reinforcing a value-conscious but resilient American consumer.
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PepsiCo, Walmart accused of price fixing in class action lawsuit
A new lawsuit alleges coordinated pricing practices, adding legal risk to two of retail’s most powerful players.
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Nike’s China conundrum deepens as turnaround stalls
Nike’s recovery in China falters, highlighting how geopolitical and consumer shifts continue to weigh on global brands.
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Instacart ends AI price testing after watchdog report
Instacart halts experimental AI-led pricing following scrutiny around potential price discrimination, reigniting debate on algorithmic transparency.
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📰 India Retail News

No herbal infusion can be called ‘tea’, says FSSAI
India’s food regulator draws a clear line on labelling, impacting wellness, D2C, and FMCG brands.
Read more

Bharti, Warburg pick up 49% in Haier India
The deal signals rising private equity confidence in India’s consumer electronics manufacturing story.
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India to get three new airlines
Shankh Air, Al Hind Air, and FlyExpress prepare for launch, adding capacity in an increasingly competitive aviation market.
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💻 Tech Headlines

China’s TikTok rival hit by cyberattack
Kuaishou faces reputational damage after a breach floods the platform with harmful content.
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Nvidia to license Groq technology, hire executives
Nvidia deepens its AI strategy as Big Tech accelerates deal-making across chips and talent.
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Italy watchdog orders Meta to halt WhatsApp AI restrictions
Regulators push back on Meta’s attempts to limit rival AI chatbot access on WhatsApp.
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Samsung plans India tech and manufacturing hub under PLI scheme
Samsung doubles down on India as a strategic production and innovation base.
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🔥 Top Funding, IPO & Earnings

• Atomberg’s FY25 revenues rise 20% to ₹958 crore as losses narrow

👔 Key Retail Appointments & Exits

• Coty appoints Procter & Gamble veteran as executive chair and interim CEO

• Mattel hires former Disney executive Josh Silverman to develop IP and franchises

• Pandora accelerates CEO transition, naming Berta de Pablos-Barbier earlier than planned

• UK’s Pets at Home appoints former Waitrose executive James Bailey as CEO

🤖 Deep Dive: How Tariffs, AI & Quick Commerce Defined Retail in 2025

The Big Picture

2025 was a year of retail acceleration and divergence. Three forces dominated globally:

• Tariffs & geopolitics returned as material business risks, disrupting pricing, sourcing, and inventory planning.

• AI shifted from pilot to platform, embedding itself into forecasting, personalization, fraud prevention, and operations.

• Quick commerce crossed the tipping point, resetting consumer expectations around speed, frequency, and convenience — especially in India.

The Winners

Retailers that outperformed shared common traits:

• AI-led efficiency: Better demand forecasting, sharper personalization, and improved margin control.

• Quick commerce mastery: Expansion beyond grocery into beauty, wellness, and impulse categories, driving higher purchase frequency.

• Physical store reinvention: Stores evolved into experience hubs, particularly resonating with Gen Z.

• Private labels & value positioning: Strong margin protection amid cautious consumer spending.

• Resilient consumption: Spending held up in essentials, self-care, food, footwear, and experiences.

India emerged as a standout market — 2025 marked the year India truly went “quick.”

The Losers

Retail’s structural weaknesses were equally clear:

• Tariffs, inflation & cost pressure squeezed margins and dampened discretionary demand.

• Record store closures and bankruptcies exposed overleveraged, mall-dependent formats.

• Labor softness & layoffs accelerated automation but strained operations.

• AI missteps triggered regulatory scrutiny, especially around pricing transparency.

• Retail crime and supply chain volatility forced tighter controls and leaner inventory strategies.

Executive Takeaway

2025 separated fast, data-driven retailers from slow, legacy-heavy ones.
AI became infrastructure, quick commerce reshaped behavior, and tariffs punished fragile supply chains.

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